2012 – Looking back, looking forwards

Two years ago I wrote an article titled ‘Economic Reflections – 2012 and Beyond’ in which I sought to integrate the potential of three cycles that had the potential to impact global economics. These included economic cycles, natural cycles and social cycles.  I reviewed these cycles with an eye to the year 2012. Note that as this year is now upon us, it is relevant to review the predictions and possibilities that I raised in my 2010 article.

The Economic Cycle

The dominant economic predictions raised in my 2012 article related to what many futurists describe as the 80 year cycle. A number of prominent authors pointed to the period 80 years on from the Great Depression of the 1930, which is the decade of the 2010s. So what is occurring in global economics that would point to the accuracy of these predictions?

The first signs of significant economic weakness was felt in what has been termed the ‘Global Financial Crisis during the years first decade post 2000.  Many describe this as a period between 2007 or 2008 and 2009, with a subsequent recovery.

Personally I question that this recovery occurred, and apparently I am not along. The free online site Wikipedia appear to share this view, describing a period of 2007 to 2012.

The 2007–2012 global financial crisis, also known as the Global Financial Crisis and 2008 financial crisis, is considered by many economists to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s

I suggest that the period of 2007 to 2009 was so challenging most hoped it would end there and long term recovery would occur.

From this position late in 2012, I believe it is indisputable to say that we are now in a period of further economic decline.

Which leaves many to point to a recovery in the imminent future. With the national debts of most countries rising rapidly, and in the light of these debts relative to the Annual Gross Domestic Products of each of these countries, I take an outlook that is more bearish.

The European Economic Union is reeling from one challenge to the next. Once the US Presidential elections are over I suggest the realities of the US economy, currently facing a 16 trillion (and rapidly growing) national debt, will come to the fore.  Australia and Asia have been shining lights, relatively speaking, throughout this GFC, however there is signs now that the Chinese economy is slowing, which will have significant and drastic effects on Australia, particularly through the reduced purchase of minerals. Australia has become, in my opinion, overly reliant on the mining boom to sustain its economic position.

So in summary of the economic cycles, the experiences of 2012 have served to support the theory that we are facing the greatest economic challenge of our lifetimes.  There is nothing about recent history that would undermine the predictions made by US futurist Harry Dent some years ago when he wrote:

…our economy will worsen and that we will see the worst downturn since the 1930s between mid-to late 2009 and 2012…

This next ‘season’ in our economy will impact your life, family, business and investments more than any other economic era in your lifetime has done.  If you thought 2008 was scary, 2010 to 2012 will bring on the greatest economic and banking crisis since the early 1930’s…

The social cycle

In my 2010 article I referred to the impact of astrological theories as to its impact on social change.  To explain the significance of this I have turned to a relatively mainstream source, Wikipedia:

An astrological age is a time period in astrology which is believed by some to parallel major changes in the Earth’s inhabitants’ development, particularly relating to culture, society and politics. There are twelve astrological ages corresponding to the twelve zodiacal signs in astrology. At the completion of one cycle of twelve astrological ages, the cycle repeats itself. Astrological ages occur because of a phenomenon known as the precession of the equinoxes. One complete period of this precession is called a Great Year or Platonic Year[1] of about 25,920 years.[2]

The key points here were:

…is believed by some to parallel major changes in the Earth’s inhabitants’ development, particularly relating to culture, society and politics.

I made it clear in my 2010 article that not all are in agreement with the timing of the Ages:

Many astrologers believe that the Age of Aquarius has arrived recently or will arrive in the near future. On the other hand, some believe that the Age of Aquarius arrived up to five centuries ago, or will not start until six centuries from now.[4] Despite all references provided by various sources, astrologers cannot agree upon exact dates for the beginning or ending of the ages.

However we can now look retrospectively on social activity during the last two years -in part to give weight or otherwise to the relevance and accuracy of these predictions.  What have we witnessed during the last two years?

There are very few countries that have escaped social unrest. Some to the point where governments have been overthrown, as was the case in at least one Middle East country.  I suspect that many have not connected this social unrest to the broader economic conditions, however my personal belief is that they are tied.

If I am on track with my beliefs on this, I believe that the potential further decline economically will be matched by increased social unrest, in the short term.

The ‘Occupy Wall Street’ movement may have temporarily lost momentum, but is far from over, as today’s protest in Wall Street, New York, confirmed. And more pointedly,

The natural cycles

This is arguably the cycle most open to debate, with conflicting theories about what is happening to the world’s natural environment.  Despite this, the governments of developed countries are seriously considering (or have implemented) a tax aimed at reducing factors that allegedly are causing global warming. I will leave you to determine for yourself the true intent of this tax.

My 2010 article referred to the strong suggestion in various ancient cultures that each 5,125 year time frame ends with a significant change, including natural changes – which, according to the ancient traditions (and supported by western science) for the past three cycles have ended with:

Fire and earthquake
Ice
Floods

To this end, much of the 2012 focus has been on the possibilities of significant natural earth changes.

With further debate as to whether this period of time is over or coming to an end, this is one cycle I am prepared to assess in a few years time, rather than judging the potential of this cycle from what we see now.

Where does this leave us?

Irrespective of whether people bought into the ‘2012 Prophecy’ or not, I suggest there would be very few now who are free of fear and optimistic about their economic future.  However rather than leave you the reader with a state of negativity, let’s now review the action steps I recommended in 2012 – are they still relevant today?

The following are the 10 key characteristics of business activity I encouraged all consider in 2010, be it for economic survival or for the purposes of creating their wealth through business:

1. Have more than one income stream.
2. Get leverage. If you don’t have leveraged income, develop it by ensure that at least one of your income stream has potential for leveraged income.
3. Focus on your weakness. Once you have mastered the art of selling your time, shift the focus to developing more entrepreneurial skills such as leverage. Spent as much if not more of your focus on developing your entrepreneurial skills. It may not be easy, it may not be quick to develop, but it will be worth it. Very few of us in physical preparation have a background in entrepreneurship, so our skills in this area lag so far behind our sets and reps skills, many get disillusioned.
4. Sell products also. Selling services is time based. Selling products is not. Overcome that fear of selling or belief that selling is evil.  You have the opportunity to add value to people’s life if you are selling an excellent product that has long term benefit to your clients.
5. Use the internet.  Make sure you use the internet effectively to run and expand your business.
6. Go global. Engage in business activity in countries/currencies in addition to that of your resident country. There is always a country/currency doing better than yours at any point in time – are you benefiting from that
7. Ensure you are adding true, long lasting, life-impacting, value to the lives of others. This is as opposed to promoting, marketing and selling the latest piece of information or equipment because you need cash flow.  I recommend you only promote/sell things that believe strongly in, have used for a long period of time, and have achieved success through mastery of it.
8. Operate your business with excellence, using excellent products.  There is no substitute for excellence. You will attract clients, partners and colleagues who share your value in excellence. Do not compromise for short term benefits.
9. Operate your business with integrity and honesty.  This includes placing the needs of your clients and business partners equal to if not ahead of your own.
10. Work with and learn from a mentor / mastermind group. Select your mentor/mastermind group from those who has/have achieved what you want (based on accurate research as opposed to believing the marketing pieces), and who is/are willing to work with you and consider your interests – and do the same for others.

In retrospect – I would not change them at all. They are still as relevant, if not more so now as they were two years ago.

One of the key points I made in my 2010 article what that the dominant models of business were at risk of dying, along with the old economic model, and being replaced by models more in tune with the suggested qualities of the Age of Aquarius:

One of the greatest hindrances to human advancement at this time is the lack of willingness to change the centralized economic power structures and financial controls that are now vested with relatively few, and disproportionately powerful, organizations and corporations. New models of economics of sharing and mutual empowerment will need to arise. This has already begun with certain forward-looking, globally oriented business practices…

Conclusion

I believe that the cycles of economy, social and natural are evident in this order. The economic cycle has showed its hand, leaving us with no doubt as the potential downside of this cycle. The social cycle is one step behind it, with what I describe as a growing level of social unrest, albeit at this stage for varying apparent reasons. The natural cycle can be said to lag further, and has not yet fully showed its direction.

My greatest focus and concern is  not however what the world is doing – rather, what you and I are doing to counter and or manage these changes.  Because change is what is happening. And change can be scary, it can create action-preventing fear.  Fear is a normal human emotion – my recommendation however is to not allow it to prevent you from taking action.

There are two kinds of change, and you have a choice. You can choose change, or you can have change forced upon you. Both are scary. The change by choice involves courage, comes with some pain. The change forced upon you requires no courage, but will hurt a lot more. The choice is yours. Change is inevitable. Pain, fear and the unknown accompany both. The former allows you to control your destiny, and potential to become a victor of the challenges. The latter denies your control and condemns you to being a victim

I have taught this lesson verbally for many years now. It’s now time to teach it with more leverage. Because your world is about to change. I want you to go to this web site http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock and spend a few minutes contemplating your countries and the worlds’ economic position and direction.

You will find many other country-centric versions if you go looking, like this one for the US http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/ and this one for Australia http://www.debtclock.com.au/.

The solutions being used to save the situation are the same solutions that created the problems, and therefore, in my opinion, are doomed to fail. I believe this cannot continue. I believe that certain realities will come be bear in the near future. I believe it was be significant. I believe it will be painful for the overwhelming majority.

I choose not to go down with this economic ship. I have chosen to educate myself, take action, learn from experience, and guide others in this journey. This is my choice.

The solutions being used to save the situation are the same solutions that created the problems, and therefore, in my opinion, are doomed to fail. I believe this cannot continue. I believe that certain realities will come be bear in the near future. I believe it was be significant. I believe it will be painful for the overwhelming majority.

I conclusion I believe the directions of at least two of the three cycles I have reviewed are clear – the economic and social cycles. I suggest we have greater challenges ahead than we have passed behind, and I believe the next 5-10 years will bear these out.  However rather than be filled with fear and concern, I choose to take action and not to go down with this economic ship. I have chosen to educate myself, take action, learn from experience, and guide others in this journey. This is my choice. You will make yours. Just remember. Choosing not to take action will not save you from pain. It will only increase it. And I take no delight in the years to come when you and I reflect back on this moment if you chose to ignore this message.